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Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect

Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role

From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown

There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but

Economic Commentary – November 3, 2025

In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic

Economic Commentary – October 27, 2025

It’s back to Trump Time, it’s Trade Time, All The Time. A successful tour of Asia to negotiate favorable trade deals would go a long way toward easing the concerns

Economic Commentary – October 20, 2025

The release of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions —aka “The Beige Book”—received considerable attention last week. The Beige Book is always a useful document for

Economic Commentary – October 13, 2025

It is a strange, somewhat unreal moment. A holiday that isn’t quite a holiday, a federal government that is mostly shut down while state governments go about their business, and

Economic Commentary – October 6, 2025

The US Government Shutdown continues, swamping most of the other economic storylines. However, the ADP employment report from last week, showing 32,000 jobs lost in September (excluding any federal employment

Economic Commentary – September 29, 2025

It will be quite some time before the most significant effects of a less restrictive monetary policy become apparent. New home sales, for example, have already picked up as lower

Economic Commentary – September 22, 2025

Amid the focus last week on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, the threat of a government shutdown wasn’t a dominant issue; there is only so much conflict