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Economic Commentary – May 12, 2025

The economic news starts to get interesting on Tuesday, and will continue from there, kicked off by the Consumer Price Numbers for April. It will be a long wait for

Economic Commentary – May 5, 2025

A recent meeting with a Pentagon officer yielded a phrase that he surely would be amused to see deployed to economic thinking: “Fog and Friction.” The conventional application of the

Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025

This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy

Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025

Timing is everything, so the saying goes.  Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just

Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025

It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake,

Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025

The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession

Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025

This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide

Economic Commentary – March 24, 2025

With the Trump Administration’s “major” reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be announced — and possibly take effect— on April 2, the focus is increasingly on the possible production and employment impacts

Economic Commentary – March 17, 2025

A consensus is growing that the first quarter’s economic growth has slowed to 1%, possibly less. As would be expected, this has taken some of the heat out of the

Economic Commentary – March 10, 2025

It is a measure of how worried investors are about economic growth when Fed Chairman Powell pushes the equity markets UP by signaling no that interest rate cuts are coming