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Economic Commentary – November 3, 2025

In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic

Economic Commentary – October 27, 2025

It’s back to Trump Time, it’s Trade Time, All The Time. A successful tour of Asia to negotiate favorable trade deals would go a long way toward easing the concerns

Economic Commentary – October 20, 2025

The release of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions —aka “The Beige Book”—received considerable attention last week. The Beige Book is always a useful document for

Economic Commentary – October 13, 2025

It is a strange, somewhat unreal moment. A holiday that isn’t quite a holiday, a federal government that is mostly shut down while state governments go about their business, and

Economic Commentary – October 6, 2025

The US Government Shutdown continues, swamping most of the other economic storylines. However, the ADP employment report from last week, showing 32,000 jobs lost in September (excluding any federal employment

Economic Commentary – September 29, 2025

It will be quite some time before the most significant effects of a less restrictive monetary policy become apparent. New home sales, for example, have already picked up as lower

Economic Commentary – September 22, 2025

Amid the focus last week on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, the threat of a government shutdown wasn’t a dominant issue; there is only so much conflict

Economic Commentary – September 8, 2025

The data being released in the next few days should cause a certain amount of acid reflux, both in global financial markets and in Washington, D.C. One statistic that seldom

Economic Commentary – September 2, 2025

Lost in the sigh of relief that the inflation numbers (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or “PCE”) last Friday weren’t all that bad was the fact that inflation has conclusively ceased

Economic Commentary – August 25, 2025

The White House’s intense focus on the monthly labor market revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has muddied the debate over the true health of US employment and