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Weekly Economic Commentary

US job growth in May was unexpectedly strong. Although the Federal Reserve says it continues to worry about the downside on US labor markets, it’s the upside on inflation commanding all the

Weekly Economic Commentary

Confidence in the durability of US labor markets seems to be rising, despite the extreme anxiety in many quarters over the role of artificial intelligence. Recent speeches by Federal Reserve

Weekly Economic Commentary

Have rising bond yields forced action on the Strait of Hormuz when rising consumer inflation rates couldn’t? If so, it wouldn’t be the first time that bond markets flexed their muscles, and it won’t be the

Weekly Economic Commentary

The world may not be awash in oil and gas right now, but there is a healthy supply of ministerial- level meetings discussing the oil and gas problem. Most of

Weekly Economic Commentary

The healthy US job growth reported on May 8— not only the 115,000 net new jobs created but also the distribution of those jobs across a number of economic sectors — has

Weekly Economic Commentary

GDP growth and consumer inflation figures released last week for both the Euro Area and the United States effectively told a tale of two different economies — both at war

Weekly Economic Commentary

April ends with a flurry of important economic numbers and a heavy dose of Federal Reserve drama. The current range of estimates for first quarter US GDP growth is a fairly

Weekly Economic Commentary

Euro Area inflation was 2.6% in March on a year-over-year basis, striking some observers as a surprisingly benign number given Europe’s considerable exposure to higher oil and natural gas prices.

Weekly Economic Commentary

There is simply no way to spin this: the “affordability” metrics are ugly and likely to get uglier in the next two months. Inflation in the United States is running

Weekly Economic Commentary

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond market giant PIMCO, has a useful, intuitive way of thinking about exogenous shocks, i.e. unexpected events with unpredictable timing that occur outside of the normal