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Economic Commentary – May 5, 2025

A recent meeting with a Pentagon officer yielded a phrase that he surely would be amused to see deployed to economic thinking: “Fog and Friction.” The conventional application of the

Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025

This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy

Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025

Timing is everything, so the saying goes.  Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just

Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025

It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake,

Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025

The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession

Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025

This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide

Economic Commentary – March 24, 2025

With the Trump Administration’s “major” reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be announced — and possibly take effect— on April 2, the focus is increasingly on the possible production and employment impacts

Economic Commentary – March 17, 2025

A consensus is growing that the first quarter’s economic growth has slowed to 1%, possibly less. As would be expected, this has taken some of the heat out of the

Economic Commentary – March 10, 2025

It is a measure of how worried investors are about economic growth when Fed Chairman Powell pushes the equity markets UP by signaling no that interest rate cuts are coming

Economic Commentary – March 3, 2025

The data keeps piling up on the side of economic caution and weakness for this first quarter of 2025. Retail sales, residential real estate (including home improvement), consumer spending (including