Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – September 22, 2026

Every home realtor knows that a 7% mortgage rate is the kiss of death. Stock market savants know that a 5% 10-year Treasury yield is a tipping point. Lots of economists know that trade wars cause recessions. And now we are told, with a certain amount of qualified certitude, that AI could/will kill us. In all of this, it becomes extremely important to ask “Why?” or “How?”. Last week, the major U.S. stock indexes finished mixed. The Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike since 2023, and oil prices bounced around due to Middle East headlines. Artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks largely ignored the warnings about the “end of humanity” and the need to “slow down” from various AI thought leaders. On the wealth planning front, this summer, those with vacation homes in New York City may have received letters in the mail from the city. Those letters are the first wave of enforcement for a new pied-à-terre surcharge that took effect July 1, 2026.