Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – April 7, 2025

The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession as the base case forecast; I do not understand how it cannot. Yet few forecasters are saying that they expect a recession this year — yet. Corporates and consumers have become more conservative recently based on recent data, which has yet to reflect the full impact of the recent Tariff Tax Turmoil. The good news is that we have a largely domestic, services-oriented economy, and while tariffs are disruptive in the short term, the impact can be contained if the recently announced sizes are scaled back. On the wealth planning front, we discuss downturn wealth planning threats and opportunities.