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Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

March 23, 2026 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

As we enter week four of the Middle East War, with interest rate decisions by the Bank of England, the ECB (European Central Bank), and the Federal Reserve all recently put behind us (all of them choosing to leave rates unchanged) the near-term focus is on oil and gas prices and the Strait of Hormuz. For some industries like airlines and agriculture and some countries like India and Korea, the word “focus” is a bit too polite; “panic” is uncomfortably closer to the truth. For everyone, the only slightly longer term question is about recession, as the constrictive impact on producers of tight supplies of oil and gas and refined products becomes an ever greater worry. Yet monetary authorities seem to be re-establishing their concerns about inflation, not economic activity. given the apparent resilience of consumer demand. There is something about all of this that has the feel of not-quite-solid ground and this feeling is undeniably uncomfortable. Both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde have major speeches this week, and a bewildering number of Federal Reserve officials will be speaking their minds at various venues. Whether quantity will lead to forecast quality is highly debatable; the economic outlook is, increasingly, in the hands of military planners and civilian strategists who themselves may not have a good fix on where they—and we—are going.  

Data to Watch  

  • S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index for March, released Tuesday, March 24  
  • ADP Weekly Employment Change, released Tuesday, March 24  
  • HCOB (Hamburg Commercial Bank) Euro Area Purchasing Managers Index for March, released Tuesday, March 24  

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