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Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

June 1, 2026 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

Confidence in the durability of US labor markets seems to be rising, despite the extreme anxiety in many quarters over the role of artificial intelligence. Recent speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents have indicated that the emerging role of AI is undeniable but its near term effect on both jobs and productivity is still modest. Of far more immediate concern to many policy makers is any slowdown in job creation attributable to cutbacks in consumer spending or business investment as a result of the conflict with Iran. Yet, evidence of any such slowdown is sketchy, at best. (Interestingly, Fed Governor Lisa Cook has mentioned that a possible use for AI by the Federal Reserve is a better analysis of the Fed "Beige Book”, the compendium of local data for the 12 Fed Districts, which includes detailed commentary from business leaders that is a treasure trove of insight but often difficult to assess collectively). Thus, purchasing manager surveys in manufacturing and services, factory orders, retail sales and a variety of other such measures of what is known of as the “real economy” — the production of real goods and services, as contrasted with the financial economy — have assumed great importance. The weakness in the housing sector cannot be overlooked or understated, but many other sectors seem to be on solid footing. As long as the data received this week continues to confirm this, monetary and fiscal authorities can continue to focus on the one, big, bedeviling problem: inflation.   

Data to Watch  

  • Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index for May, for Manufacturing, released Monday, June 1 
  • JOLTS Job Openings for April, released Tuesday, June 2 
  • Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index for May, for Service Sector, released Wednesday, June 3 
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for May, released Friday, June 5 

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