Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – November 17, 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time.  Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data for September and October. The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly hawkish as labor market data from Challenger to ADP is weakening, making it difficult to rationalize a rate hold. On the wealth planning front, we share why the greatest holiday gift is a well-communicated plan.