Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – March 3, 2025

The data keeps piling up on the side of economic caution and weakness for this first quarter of 2025. Retail sales, residential real estate (including home improvement), consumer spending (including on services), business spending, and inventories all have indicated a slower pace for US economic activity for the start of the year, coming off a fourth quarter of 2024 that also reflected decelerating growth. The S&P 500 returned -1.0%; the damage would have been worse if not for a 1.6% window-dressing rally in the final two hours of month-end trading. The NASDAQ dropped -3.5% as the Mag 7 stocks fell 4.0% for the week. Treasury yields fell to their lowest level of the year amid a host of concerns: a slowing economy, deteriorating consumer sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and negative investor sentiment. On the wealth planning front, we discuss recent IRS layoffs.