Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – August 25, 2025

The White House’s intense focus on the monthly labor market revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has muddied the debate over the true health of US employment and its near-term direction. Even without the revisions, there would be serious questions as to the policy implications of the nonfarm payroll numbers. Rising corporate earnings and expectations of lower policy rates are positive for risk-asset markets. Many asset-market valuations are not appealing, but risk-on is likely to persist until earnings are challenged by a weakening economy, or long-term government bond yields potentially break out to the upside (price down/yield up) due to unanchored inflation expectations, increasing Federal deficits, and/or concerns about Fed independence. Despite questions about economic strength, inflation, and tariffs, second-quarter earnings growth has been strong. On the wealth planning front, we discuss coping financially after the loss of a spouse.