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Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary – October 7, 2024

October 7, 2024
This week largely will be about last week. After numerous Federal Reserve officials (as expected) tamped down expectations for 50 bps rate cuts as the “new normal,” Friday’s boffo nonfarm payrolls report for September put to bed the notion that more aggressive Fed rate cutting was needed to boost a rapidly weakening US economy. Over the weekend, the dramatic narrative shift became apparent; economic data out of Europe returned the focus to the significantly different economic trajectory being traced by the United States, in contrast to a hesitant, cautious, economically weakened Europe and the UK. A global economy with solid economic growth posted by all its major players is generally considered desirable, supporting both long-term economic and political stability. Achieving that broad-based global growth is perhaps the number one economic challenge for the next 6-12 months. In the meantime, the US shows every indication of continuing to lead the world with 2-3% economic growth and broadening economic opportunities. Data to Watch:
  1. National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index for September, released Tuesday, October 8
  2. US Exports and Imports for August, released Tuesday, October 8
  3. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for meeting on September 18, released Wednesday, October 9
  4. US Consumer Price Index for September, released Thursday, October 10 (Producer Price Index for September released the next day, Friday October 11)

Suggested Reading:

  1. The Job Market Is Chugging Along, Completing a Solid Economic Picture
  2. Household saving rate up to 15.7% in the euro area
  3. Meet the HENRYs: The Six-Figure Earners Who Don’t Feel Rich

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