Loading . . .

  • Why Us
  • Contact
  • Why Us
  • Contact
Talk to us
Economy

Five Charts for the Week That Was: July 25, 2025

July 25, 2025 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

These two charts count as one. The story that the Fed will have to unpack on inflation is about what is going on underneath the top-line CPI numbers. Prices on homes for sale are rising, but sales are lacking.  Falling rents contribute to decelerating inflation with a considerable lag. Oil prices may fall again as the Saudis and the Gulf states increase supplies, but tariff costs are mounting and may begin to feed into consumer prices. And what do consumers probably like least of all? Fast food and restaurant inflation, which has been considerable and readily visible, continues to be a problem despite the fact that grocery-aisle snack food sales are weak.

In the ongoing aftermath of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”), Medicaid cuts remain an area of concern. Hospital revenues are considerably dependent upon Medicare and Medicaid support, and states are debating how, and how much, to step into any gaps.  It is easy to see why Medicaid spending has become a focus of Washington, DC policymakers, but it is less clear to gauge what one can effectively do in light of rising healthcare costs and an aging population.

On the topic of aging, another chart to remind us that not only are we getting older, but the world collectively will be getting older as population growth slows and medical care helps people live longer. Individual countries can alter their population growth outlook via immigration policies, but globally, the only effective action is an increased birth rate and increased life span.  Very long-range projections are often surprisingly wrong; this one is worth watching and thinking.

The credit card business is ultimately a function of a bank's asset & liability committee decisions.  Those decisions can vary widely and only partly reflect economic conditions, actual or projected.  Nevertheless, it seems that a certain amount of caution has entered the picture, even as credit card balances grow and delinquencies remain relatively low (but rising). Historically, credit card companies have pursued users who are credit-worthy but carry a credit card balance and pay those lovely high interest rates. Credit card fees are becoming increasingly important, however, and some of the deceleration in new account openings is thought to reflect the pursuit of wealthy customers willing to pay high annual fees and to generate ancillary revenues.

Source: Trading Economics, $DXY through July 9 

Wealthy households do not seem to be spending in the usual ways, at least with respect to the high-end art market.  Global auction sales at the “Big Three” art auction houses have fallen 44% since 2022. The pandemic-influenced numbers for 2020 are considered an anomaly, yet even lowering some of the 2021 and 2022 numbers to reflect a catch-up leaves the art market highly worried about a falling trendline.  Circumstantial evidence suggests that generational change may be the culprit; wealthy 30-somethings do not appear to be spending money like their boomer parents – an observation that can be applied to various segments of the luxury marketplace.

Disclosures

Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance objectives, targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are speculative and involve substantial risks including significant loss of principal, high illiquidity, long time horizons, uneven growth rates, high fees, onerous tax consequences, limited transparency and limited regulation. Alternative investments are not suitable for all investors and are only available to qualified investors. Please refer to the private placement memorandum for a complete listing and description of terms and risks. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.

Do you believe there will be a recession in 2025?

Blog Form

This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form

What are the top 3 priorities for your practice for the remainder of the year?

Select 3 from the options below so we can help you accomplish your goals/priorities.
This field is hidden when viewing the form
Top 3 priorities(Required)
Tell us how we can contact you about accomplishing your goals/priorities.
Name*(Required)

Similar Readings

Five Charts for the Week That Was: July 11, 2025 July 10, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg: Th... July 4, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Bus... June 26, 2025