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Economic Commentary

Economic Momentum Builds as Companies Shift Focus to 2026

December 8, 2025 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

Lessened concern about consumer spending weakness in December, and optimism about end-of-year economic growth, risks overlooking the intense focus of American business on 2026 profitability. Adjustments to the global trade changes introduced by tariff policy and other actions continue to unfold, and labor force decisions for the first half of the coming year — always top-of-mind at this point in the calendar— are still being formulated. A flurry of announced or rumored mergers and acquisitions activity is another sign that, whereas 2025 might be characterized by many business leaders as one of survival, 2026 is shaping up as one of growth and competitive strength. Although the sum total of these actions may lead to short-term softness in employment, the longer-run outlook is far more promising. If Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is correct in predicting 3% GDP growth as the economy heads into 2026, this astounding momentum in what is essentially the 15th year of economic expansion must be celebrated and valued for the opportunities it will provide.  

Data to Watch

  1. US “JOLTS” Job Openings for September (and maybe October), released Tuesday, December 9
  2. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision, Wednesday, December 10
  3. Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Wednesday, December 10 (in conjunction with FOMC Interest Rate Decision)
  4. US Producer Price Indices for October and November, released Thursday, December 11

Suggested Reading

  1. Have Trump’s Tariffs Hit the ‘High-Water Mark’?
  2. Trump’s trade war shift away from Chinese manufacturing has reached tipping point
  3. China’s Growth Is Coming at the Rest of the World’s Expense

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