Economic Commentary – November 25, 2024

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving. This is a time to reflect upon all the opportunities and challenges that have come our way and to be thankful for our ability to work diligently on the path forward. It is not always easy because, among other things, the way is often not clear. Almost everyone at this moment appears to feel a significant amount of personal excitement and doubt about 2025, emotions that seem to be playing out in the financial markets. The sense of change afoot is palpable, yet the actual substance of that change is still as ethereal as the mist of a November morning. Very little will be revealed about the economy this week, although the Black Friday sales (which started in late October and accelerated in stridency across November) will bear watching for the mood of the American consumer and the resiliency of pocketbooks. Given the strength of wage growth, a smart bet might be that the current 2.5-2.75% pace of US economic growth will continue but will not accelerate, and inflation will remain modest. Resistance to price increases is well established, but how this translates into the inflation numbers will be clearer in November than in the October PCE numbers released this week. Data to Watch:

1. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from last Interest rate decision, released Tuesday, November 26
2. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October, released Wednesday, November 27
3. US Personal Income and Spending for October, released Wednesday, November 27

Suggested Reading:

1. As Threat of Trump's Tariffs Looms, Europe's Leaders Seek Greater Unity 
2. If Inflation Is Back, Protecting Against It Won’t Be Simple
3. Canada’s Plan for U.S. Trade Talks: Throw Mexico Under the Bus

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