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Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary – July 14, 2025

July 14, 2025 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

July doesn’t feel much like the summer doldrums yet. Tariff threats are flying, bilateral deals are being hammered out (we hope, albeit with minimal details), and economist Kevin Hassett is the latest policymaker trying to engineer a Federal Reserve coup. One way to understand the economic policy disarray is to appreciate that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have been relegated to secondary news stories. US company earnings announcements, which begin with the big banks on Tuesday, will provide some badly needed perspective on the erratic and alarming news cycle. Unless, of course, they don’t. Some companies have given up on providing “forward guidance” in this environment — economists can sympathize — but much is hanging on the explicit or implicit details regarding the ability of corporate America to survive and thrive in 2025.  Paradoxically, the better the news, the more difficult the job for a Federal Reserve that might like to placate President Trump’s demands for a rate cut. Unless the June inflation numbers reveal an unexpected deceleration in inflation, a resilient business community undermines any proffered reason to change monetary policy.  

Data to Watch

  1. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, released Tuesday, July 15
  2. US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, released Wednesday, July 16
  3. US Retail Sales for June, released Thursday, July 17
  4. Michigan Survey of US Consumer Sentiment, preliminary for July, released Friday, July 18

Suggested Reading

  1. Five Things to Know about Record Copper Prices
  2. Amid Tariff Chaos, U.S. Allies Try to Redraw the Trade Map
  3. Why this fashionable corporate concept doesn’t work

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