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Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary – December 2, 2024

December 2, 2024
We enter this week into that slightly unreal month where the year seems mostly done, but the next year hasn’t started — an uncomfortable limbo papered over with parties and travel and shopping and general busyness. Apparently, enough of the travel and shopping occurred over Thanksgiving weekend to leave retailers breathing a sigh of relief, but already, the question of what comes next is a palpable presence. Black Friday sales may have boosted consumer spending or may simply have pulled purchases from the first quarter of 2025 into these last moments of 2024. Employment trends will have much to say about the sustainability of the holiday spending mood, and the November employment numbers released this week will be much examined. In Europe, however, even momentary bursts of joyful spending would be welcome, and unfortunately less likely, as concerns mount over US trade policy and its potential negative effects on an already weakened economy. “Waiting for the other shoe to drop” is not commonly thought of as a Christmas sentiment, yet it seems to float in the air this year.
Data to Watch:
  1. S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, released Monday, December 2
  2. US JOLTS Job Openings for November, released Tuesday, December 3
  3. US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment for November, released Friday, December 6
  4. Euro Area Retail Sales for October, released Thursday, December 5
Suggested Reading:
  1. How Harry & David Gets 20,000 Tons of Pears to Doorsteps for the Holidays
  2. With Discounts on Offer, Shoppers Began to Bite
  3. How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter

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