Loading . . .

        • About Us

          We are a national wealth management firm servicing entrepreneurs, business owners, executives, family offices, and institutions.

        • Mission & History
        • Learn about the rich history of the firm and today’s mission for our clients.

        • Offices
        • View our national presence with our offices across the country.

        • Leadership
        • Meet our leadership team at the firm and learn how we support advisors.

  • Why Us
        • Resources

          Learn more about our insights in the Resources section! Find helpful articles and news from our leadership, including our Investment Office, Chief Economist and Wealth Planning Team.

        • Blog
        • Blogs and articles from our leadership team

        • Press
        • Press coverage and breaking news

  • Contact
Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary – December 16, 2024

December 16, 2024
Economic data descends upon us this week, like big, fat, fluffy snowflakes. Each piece of data is different but collectively details the landscape, possibly even making for a snowball fight. The FOMC meeting, which will culminate in the last interest rate decision for the year, is bracketed by important data on economic activity, including consumer spending and manufacturing activity (prior to the FOMC decision) and inflation (unfortunately AFTER the FOMC decision.) There is a bit of “will they or won’t they” in the air, but it seems most likely that the Fed will decide to cut the Fed Funds rate another 25bps; to reiterate, the Fed believes that interest rates will remain restrictive and far from a hypothetical neutral, even after a further rate reduction. Of course, some of this restrictiveness comes from the long end of the yield curve, over which the Fed has little direct control. The real news may well be in the simultaneous release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), aka “dot-plots.” If FOMC members were spooked about the robust labor market and a slight uptick in the 12-month CPI, it will probably show up in revised estimates for interest rate cuts in 2025. Economists, investors, and the global bond market will no doubt be paying close attention to the SEP “forecast,” and Chairman Powell, in his press conference, will no doubt stress that the Fed remains data-driven, continues to be happy with the decline in inflation and stands ready to adjust monetary policy as needed.
Data to Watch:
  1. S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index, preliminary for December, released Monday, December 16
  2. US Retail Sales for November, released Tuesday, December 17
  3. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference, Wednesday, December 18 (includes updated Summary of Economic Projections)
  4. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation for November, released Friday, December 20
  5. US Personal Income and Spending for November, released Friday, December 20
Suggested Reading:
  1. Why the Coolest Job in Tech Might Actually Be in a Bank
  2. Americans Are Stockpiling to Get Ahead of Tariffs
  3. France Has a Debt Problem, But Europe Does Not
  4. Can the U.S. Climb Out of Its ‘Unprecedented’ Housing Crisis?

Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2024 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.