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Weekly Commentary Summary

Welcome to 2026. The traditional image of the baby who brings in the new year seems modestly inappropriate as the US economy enters what, by many measures, represents the 198th month of an economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2009. The S&P 500 returned 17.9% in 2025 and ended the year just off an all-time high, capping a 37% recovery from the April lows as the economy and corporate profits proved far more resilient than markets feared from tariffs and geopolitical events. Exuberance of the prospects for Artificial Intelligence was a key aspect of the recovery as well, though fears around an “AI bubble” continue to linger, and lofty valuations for the market remain a concern. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in 2026—what matters, what doesn’t, and the practical implications for long-term planning.

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