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Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

April 27, 2026 by Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist

April ends with a flurry of important economic numbers and a heavy dose of Federal Reserve drama. The current range of estimates for first quarter US GDP growth is a fairly wide 1%-2.5% and anything close to 2% will be considered a quite good number. When the preliminary estimate for GDP growth is posted on Thursday, it will be competing for attention with the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a number almost certain to come in above 3%. Should GDP growth report at 1% or less, and inflation be above 3.5%, there will be a renewed discussion of stagflation — with lots of mental contortions devoted to reconciling theoretical economic stagnation with the robust quarterly earnings reports witnessed thus far. It is a great disappointment of the economic calendar that all this really interesting stuff is going to happen AFTER the interest rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee and Jerome Powell’s highly probable last press conference as Fed Chairman. It is now likely that Kevin Warsh will be quickly confirmed and take his long-sought place as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in May, bringing with him a goal of reducing (excuse me, “reforming’) the abundance of communication provided by Fed Governors, Fed Presidents and the Chair himself. Less frequent communication is not necessarily a bad thing, but the idea has already been floated that Powell’s highly entertaining post-FOMC press conference may become a thing of the past. Sacré Bleu! 

Data to Watch 

  • US Housing Starts for March, released Wednesday, April 29 
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision and Jerome Powell Press Conference, Wednesday, April 29 
  • US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March, released Thursday, April 30 
  • US Personal Income and Spending for March, released Thursday, April 30 
  • First Estimate of Q1 US GDP growth, released Thursday, April 30 

Suggested Reading 

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