Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – August 11, 2025

Inflation returns to center stage this week with the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These numbers have significance for all the usual reasons, but now will be viewed in the context of a July employment report weak enough to have shifted the thinking to an “almost-certain” September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve— “almost certain” if these inflation numbers cooperate. The S&P 500 returned +2.4% as markets focused on strong corporate earnings results and looked past the disappointing economic data from the previous week. Markets looked past several data points that may ordinarily have given it pause: a weak ISM Services print, rising yields due to weak auction demand for 10-year and 30-year treasuries, and various tariff-related headlines. On the wealth planning front, we discuss how government economic data impacts your plan.