Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – June 9, 2025

The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the uneasy tenor of the current moment is the apparent difficulty the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having in getting its monthly survey of nonfarm payrolls correct, either because of its reduced staffing (thank you, Elon Musk) or because businesses have had to redirect resources away from filling out surveys and over to fill out government paperwork (thank you, Donald Trump.) U.S. stocks closed within ~2% of their all-time highest level since February 2025, lifted by a combination of resilient jobs data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Bond Yields climbed as investors recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve policy, following economic signals that eased fears of an imminent slowdown and fluctuating levels of concern about budget deficits. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the proposed social security tax relief.