Investment Office Quick Thoughts: April 3, 2025

What Happened?

We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it's beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify. 

What Are We Monitoring?

Clearly, this situation is not a one-round announcement.  We will need to watch for potential country retaliation, responses, and negotiations. However, game theory "rounds" or repeated interactions are crucial, especially in understanding how strategies evolve over time, as participants must consider the impact of their actions on future interactions, potentially leading to cooperation or unraveling of cooperation. This is especially complicated as there are multiple bilateral negotiations. Additionally, we will be closely monitoring the Q1 earnings season, which begins in less than two weeks. The guidance, or more likely absence thereof, will be critical to understand how companies may behave regarding their willingness/ability to pass along price increases and continue with capital expenditures.  Finally, we are mindful that consumers may delay spending activity.  

Currently, it seems the highest tariffs in 100 years are likely not a passing fad. Trump mentioned he would like to bring in $600B- $1T in tariff revenue in the next year or 2, which, to us, signals a resolve to have high duties to push investment into the USA.

Summary Announcement Highlights

• 10% baseline tariff on exporters, starting 4/5
• Reciprocal tariff of at least 50% of tariffs/currency manipulation/trade barriers (this includes VAT, Value-Added-Taxes). Expected to start 4/9
• Vietnam is one of the highest at 46%
• China 34% + 20% for a total of 54%
• India 26%
• European Union 20%
• Canada and Mexico stay at 25%, with exemption for UMSCA-covered goods. This was seen as a bit of a win for them not to be included in today 
• Steel, aluminum, and automobiles already subject to other duties are exempted 
• Potential for reduction in rates if other nations remove trade barriers on US exports

Risk Markets

We believe the “Trump Put” and “Fed Put” are off the table for now. The tariff announcement will likely exacerbate worries about slowing US growth and sticky inflation. Actual and perceived price pressures from tariffs may keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) sidelined for the near future until there is a meaningful weakness in the job market.  

We are cautious about risk markets and anticipate near-term earnings multiple compression to deepen the decline in the S&P 500, which has just come off its worst quarter since 2022. Global economic weakness and potential earnings disappointments, alongside incremental uncertainty, pose challenges for global equity markets. Although US 10-year Treasury yields are on par with short rates, if the economy weakens further and rates rally, we believe investment grade bonds could deliver attractive total return (interest plus price appreciation: price up / yield down).  Within equity markets, we are intentional in constructing portfolio holdings that are less dependent on the AI theme, more resilient in the face of recession risks, and more domestically focused with less risk to tariffs.  By example, the Magnificent 7 stocks YTD before the recent tariff announ