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June 9, 2025
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Economic Commentary – June 9, 2025

The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the
June 2, 2025
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Economic Commentary – June 2, 2025

Amidst all the confusion as to which US tariffs are in place, which are in deferment and which have never come into being — not to mention which retaliatory actions
May 27, 2025
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Economic Commentary – May 27, 2025

Congress is on Memorial Day holiday until June 3 (yes, they do get better benefits than most people!), although returning to their districts and (maybe) meeting with constituents may be
May 19, 2025
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Economic Commentary – May 19, 2025

Moody’s lowering of the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa was not entirely surprising; S&P cut its rating of the US as a borrower from its highest rating
May 12, 2025
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Economic Commentary – May 12, 2025

The economic news starts to get interesting on Tuesday, and will continue from there, kicked off by the Consumer Price Numbers for April. It will be a long wait for
May 5, 2025
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Economic Commentary – May 5, 2025

A recent meeting with a Pentagon officer yielded a phrase that he surely would be amused to see deployed to economic thinking: “Fog and Friction.” The conventional application of the
April 28, 2025
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Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025

This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy
April 21, 2025
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Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025

Timing is everything, so the saying goes.  Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just
April 14, 2025
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Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025

It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake,
April 7, 2025
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Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025

The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession